LISA Statistics for the 1860 Presidential Election
Abraham Lincoln won in 1860 without a majority vote. It is clear from the 1860 map that Lincoln’s competitor in the north was the Democratic Party. During Douglas’ time, he was pitted as a traitor to the Democratic Party by Breckinridge supporters. Further, Douglas focused on agrarian, anti-commercialism which appealed to northwestern voters and to immigrants in particular (Dodd 1911). Either way, the Democratic voting bloc which dominated southern politics before the Slavery Era was effectively split by Breckinridge, i.e. the stable political landscape was upset.
LISA Statistics for the 1856 Presidential Election
The map presents parties in the 1856 election. Except for the two pockets of H – H Republican support in Virginia, the parties’ geographic base is clearly in the north. Between 1836 and 1850, Democrats and Whigs held comparable vote shares. There was no north/south cleavage (Schofield, Miller et al. 2003). However, the social and labor issues related to slavery gained salience, created a geographic divide and demanded the parties reorient their positions. This is evident in the maps.
LISA Statistics for Vote Change in the Civil Rights Era
Given the global spatial autocorrelation, LISA statistics were calculated to explore the local geographic patterns of the changes in voting. At a glance, this picture tells the story of the realignment quite succinctly. For example, the geographic patterns of the vote change in the Democratic Party from 1960 to 1964 and 1964 to 1968 flips. In the first period, the north is H – H and the south is L – L. In the second period, the north is L – L and the south is H – H. The same reversal of patterns is immediately evident in the Republican picture.
Civil Rights Era Changes in Turnout
Voter turnout can fluctuate significantly in realigning elections. This map shows changes in turnout for the 1964 and 1968 Presidential elections.